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SATURDAY,  JUNE 6,  2009

OBAMA AT OMAHA BEACH - AT 10:54 P.M. ET:  President Obama spoke at Omaha Beach today, commemorating the 65th anniversary of D-Day.  The text of the speech is here.  It was okay, no better, and somewhat below his usual standard.  A careful reading suggests that it was written by someone else, and not too carefully polished. 

We never expected Obama to equal the beautiful speech given by Ronald Reagan on the 40th anniversary of D-Day, in 1984.  Reagan was a part of the World War II generation.  He felt it.  Obama was going through the motions.  He didn't seem to feel much of anything.  Reagan's speech is here.

But there is a difference between the two men that goes beyond the difference in generations.  Ronald Reagan understood the importance of D-Day because he understood history.  He understood the implications of what men do, or fail to do.  Barack Obama is a lesser man, not fully formed, with, apparently, little interest in history beyond the minimum facts, or non-facts, needed for a speech.  He appears unable to speak beyond his own experience. 

Ronald Reagan never spoke about himself.  Barack Obama always seems to be speaking about himself.  Reagan may have been the actor, but it's Obama who places himself in every scene. 

For Obama, the human story is a classroom exercise or a series of intellectualized propositions.  Reagan could feel the flesh and the bone.

Read the two speeches.  Draw your own conclusions.

June 6, 2009   Permalink 

AIR FRANCE UPDATE - AT 3:08 P.M. ET:  From AP:

RECIFE, Brazil -- Searchers found two bodies and a briefcase containing a ticket for Air France Flight 447 in the Atlantic Ocean close to where the jetliner is believed to have crashed, a Brazil military official said Saturday.

COMMENT:  It's a grim reality, but examination of the bodies may give clues to a possible cause of the crash, especially if an explosion, spewing shrapnel or chemicals, was involved. 

June 6, 2009    Permalink

LATEST ON AIR FRANCE 447 - AT 11:38 A.M. ET:  We've been following the probe into Air France flight 447, which disappeared over the Atlantic last week on a flight from Rio to Paris.  We're following this because the disappearance is a mystery, and terrorism has not been ruled out.  From London's Telegraph:

The Air France plane that disappeared out of the sky en route from Brazil to France sent 24 automatic messages signalling system failures, French investigators have revealed.

Among them may have been the plane's autopilot, which was disengaged for the final minutes before the plane is believed to have plunged into the sea. But officials said it was not clear whether the autopilot had been switched off by the pilots, or had cut out because it received conflicting airspeed readings.

The mystery over what happened to flight AF447 deepened when French weather experts said there was no evidence the aircraft had encountered "exceptional" atmospheric conditions.

COMMENT:  That last point is startling and reminds us why we should be skeptical of initial reports after a catastrophic event.  We were initially told that the plane encountered severe turbulence, but that is apparently not the case.

What caused so many system failures?  Was there a major mechanical breakdown, unlikely on such a modern plane?  Or was there something else, an explosion perhaps?  Or was the plane improperly flown, possibly by someone who'd broken into the cockpit? 

We have no evidence - none - that terrorism was involved.  But the mystery grows greater, and nothing must be dismissed.  At the same time, news reports say it's quite possible that flight 447 will join the list of unsolved aviation disasters.

June 6, 2009   Permalink

QUITE REMARKABLE - AT 10:22 A.M. ET:  One of the most underreported stories by the American media is the breathtaking development of India's democracy.  Maybe it's underreported because President Bush was so successful in moving India toward the West, and one must not openly praise BUSH (!!).  But the facts speak for themselves and provide a very encouraging picture.  From the excellent Salim Mansur in the Toronto Sun:

India's recent election shows the distance this vast and diverse country has advanced on the path of democracy. How impressive this is may be appreciated when viewed in the context that no other developing society has confronted obstacles as many and huge as India in the process of making her democratic progress.

The sheer logistics of holding a country-wide election for 543 seats of the Lok Sabha -- 714 million eligible voters in a population of over 1.1 billion voting in more than 828,000 polling centres -- illustrate the demand on people and resources to make India the world's largest republican democracy.

The extent to which democracy has become part of India's political and social fabric -- the April-May voting was the 15th general election since the first, held in 1952, after India adopted a republican constitution with a parliamentary form of government in 1950 -- is one of the more optimistic stories in our world.

And...

India's emergence as a major global player and ally of the West is buttressed and legitimized by her democracy. This too is reason, in our somewhat grim world, deserving celebration.

COMMENT:  Celebrate we will, even without the press.  There was a time when India was openly hostile to the United States.  Times have changed.  And, isn't it interesting, as India has grown closer to the West, it has grown increasingly prosperous.  I wonder why.

June 6, 2009   Permalink

STARTLING - AT 9:27 A.M. ET:  Meeting with President Sarkozy of France, the president, possibly inadvertently, made a startling admission today, as reported by The New York Times.  He made this statement, with his usual "we're tough" theme:

Labeling North Korea’s behavior “extraordinarily provocative,” Mr. Obama said: “Diplomacy has to involve the other side engaging in a serious way in trying to solve problems, and we have not seen that kind of reaction from North Korea,” Mr. Obama said. “We are going to take a very hard look on how we move forward on these issues,” Mr. Obama said. “I don’t think there should be an assumption that we will simply continue down a path in which North Korea is constantly destabilizing the region and we just react in the same ways.”

But then this:

He added: “We are not intending to continue a policy of rewarding provocation.”

Say what?  The president thus confirms what his critics have been saying all along, that he's been rewarding North Korea for its actions.

As Jack Benny profoundly put it:  "Well!"

That is quite a statement.  But now the question is whether he will follow it up with action, or simply a tougher statement.  Wait 'til the left wing of the Democratic Party hears about Obama's admission.  They'll be up in arms.  No, wait.  They don't believe in arms.  Only disarmament.  So they'll be up in disarms.

June 6, 2009   Permalink

NEW ANALYSIS OF IRANIAN NUKES - AT 9:20 A.M. ET:  We reported on Iran's expanded uranium enrichment last night.  Here is a new analysis, even more troubling, from Eli Lake of the Washington Times.  Lake is one of the best reporters covering this subject:

Ignoring overtures for talks from the Obama administration, Iran has continued to build a stockpile of low-enriched uranium and could, within three to six months, convert the material into a nuclear weapon, according to nuclear specialists.

And what, precisely, has been the punishment for Iran?  Why, tough talk and very impressive frowns.

..according to an analysis of the latest IAEA report on Iran by the Institute for Science and International Security a Washington think tank that focuses on nuclear proliferation Iran produced an additional 329 kilograms (724 pounds) of low-enriched uranium from November through May, a 20-percent improvement in Iran's capacity to make the fuel.

And...

Nuclear weapons 'breakout capability' is a scenario that involves enriching LEU [low-enriched uranium] to weapon-grade uranium, said the analysis by nuclear specialists David Albright and Jacqueline Shire.

This could be accomplished within three to six months at either the Natanz facility or a clandestine gas centrifuge facility.

Lake points out that whether Iran is intent on building a bomb is controversial.  A 2007 U.S. intelligence estimate said that Iran had ceased the weaponization part of its program.  However...

European intelligence services and Israel assert that Iran is operating an active weapons program in secret.

Last month, President Obama appeared to let slip that he also believed the Iranians were seeking a weapon.

Former Israeli national security adviser Giora Eiland, in a briefing I attended, startled his audience by saying that Europe now has a tougher line on Iran than does the United States.

A second IAEA report released Friday found traces of uranium at a previously undisclosed site in Syria, raising the prospect that the Middle Eastern nation could be preserving nuclear capacity after Israeli jets bombed a fledging North Korea-style reactor in Syria in 2007.

Punishment?  Anyone?

June 6, 2009   Permalink

FRIDAY,  JUNE 5,  2009

AND NOW FOR THE REAL WORLD - AT 6:32 P.M. ET:  There are presidential speeches, and then there's reality:

VIENNA (Reuters) - Iran has significantly expanded uranium enrichment with almost 5,000 centrifuges now operating and this has made it harder for U.N. inspectors to keep track of the disputed nuclear activity, an IAEA report said on Friday.

Obtained by Reuters, the restricted International Atomic Energy Agency report said Iran had increased its rate of production of low-enriched uranium (LEU), boosting its stockpile by 500 kg to 1,339 kg in the past six months.

Iran's improved efficiency in turning out potential nuclear fuel is sure to fan Western fears of the Islamic Republic nearing the ability to make atomic bombs, if it chose to do so.

COMMENT:  How can anyone be concerned after the president "reached out" to Iran in Cairo yesterday?  Why, the sound you hear is all those centrifuges being shut down, and spears being beaten into ploughshares.

Not.

The Iranian program, which is surely aimed at having a weapons capability, and the North Korean program, which is already there, are enormous threats.  Notice how severely the two countries are being punished.  Our secretary of state has mightily frowned.

But, you know, if only Israel would curtail its settlements, everything would be all right.  Surely the North Koreans would respond.

June 5, 2009   Permalink

STUNNING - AT 9:46 A.M. ET:  More poll numbers, just in.  We always stress that polls are snapshots in time, and only trends will tell the story.  But we must point out that President Obama has suffered a sharp drop in approval this week in the Rasmussen poll, which tracks daily:

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Friday shows that 34% of the nation's voters now Strongly Approve of the way that Barack Obama is performing his role as President. Thirty-four percent (34%) Strongly Disapprove giving Obama a Presidential Approval Index rating of 0. That’s the highest level of strong disapproval and the lowest overall rating yet recorded.

And why?

The President’s ratings have slipped since General Motors filed for bankruptcy to initiate a new government bailout and takeover. Just 26% of Americans believe the GM bailout was a good idea and nearly as many support a boycott of GM products. It remains to be seen whether the dip in the President’s numbers is a temporary reaction to recent news or something more substantive.

COMMENT:  Rasmussen also reports that the gap between the president's overall approval and disapproval is down to eight points, 54-46%.  We'll be curious to see whether Mr. Obama's current foreign tour will help or hurt him, or prove to be a wash.  Stand by.  There's a midterm election next year, and this is getting interesting.

June 5, 2009   Permalink

FASCINATING POLL - AT 9:18 A.M. ET:  The rehabilitation of Dick Cheney has begun:

PRINCETON, NJ -- Democratic House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and former Vice President Dick Cheney have little in common politically, but they receive almost identical image ratings from the American public. According to a May 29-31 Gallup Poll, 37% of Americans have a favorable view of Cheney and 34% have a favorable view of Pelosi. Both Cheney and Pelosi are viewed unfavorably by at least half of Americans.

COMMENT:  Okay, okay, don't rub it in.  The fact is that the former vice president now has a greater favorability rating than does the current speaker of the House.  Now, let's see if the mainstream scribes continues to harp on Cheney's "unpopularity" and "negative public image."  If they do, we we'll hit them with the chant, "Pelosi," starting softly and building to a roar.

June 5, 2009   Permalink

AIR FRANCE 447 - AT 9:10 A.M. ET:  The mystery of Air France flight 447, which vanished over the Atlantic on a flight from Rio to Paris, continues to deepen.  It now turns out that wreckage found by the Brazilian navy was not from that flight, but from a shipwreck.  There is not a trace thus far.

The French foreign minister has added a sobering thought:

French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner, speaking Thursday in Rio de Janeiro where he attended a Mass honoring the crash victims, said experts had not found signs that would back up a "terrorism theory."

"But we cannot discard that for now," he told reporters. "Nothing leads us to believe that there was an explosion, but that doesn't mean there wasn't one."

"All the paths are open and we will not give priority to a single premise because that would be immoral," he added.

June 5,  2009   Permalink

THE BRITS GET IT RIGHT - AT 8:33 A.M. ET:  We've said here before that British journalists have a clearer fix on the Obamans than our own writers have, except for a very few courageous Americans who dare to question the perfection of The One.  Now Toby Harnden of London's Telegraph gives us his take on the ten mistakes Mr. Obama made yesterday in Cairo.  This is on-the-button stuff: 

It was, of course, very well-delivered and contained many fine phrases. But we know that Obama can do this and he's subject to the law of diminishing returns. The more I think about it, the more potentially problematic I find the speech. Here, for starters, are 10 mistakes he made:

1. "Given our interdependence, any world order that elevates one nation or group of people over another will inevitably fail." With this phrase, Obama dismissed the notion of American exceptionalism, the belief that the United States occupies a special place among nations.

I think it's significant that Harnden puts this first.  Obama simply is not in the tradition of American presidents.  Because he knows little history, he's unaware of the importance of this country.  He diminishes its role.  Enemies will notice.  And so will friends.

2. "I am a Christian, but my father came from a Kenyan family that includes generations of Muslims. As a boy, I spent several years in Indonesia and heard the call of the azaan at the break of dawn and the fall of dusk." While watering down America's status in the world, Obama has consistently sought to elevate his own status to that of a universal, healing symbol as if his very being, his inspiring life story, his Muslim background, his father from Kenya, his childhood spell in Indonesia will square the circle in the Middle East. If only it were as easy as that. This comes across as naive, even pandering.

Yup.  Pandering.  Naive.  Dangerous.  Adolescent.  Otherwise, it's okay.

3. "Around the world, the Jewish people were persecuted for centuries, and anti-Semitism in Europe culminated in an unprecedented Holocaust.... On the other hand..."

Moral equivalence.  The real "Palestinian cause" would wipe Israel off the map. 

4. "The U.S. government has gone to court to protect the right of women and girls to wear the hijab, and to punish those who would deny it. I reject the view of some in the West that a woman who chooses to cover her hair is somehow less equal, but I do believe that a woman who is denied an education is denied equality." Probably the worst passage of all. By highlighting the most superficial aspect of women's rights is the Muslim world, Obama dramatically underplayed the oppression women face. It's not people in the West who believe women who cover their hair are less equal, it's countries in the Middle East that dictate that all women are less equal.

Well said.  And the piece goes on like this.  Highly recommended. 

June 5, 2009   Permalink

REFLECTIONS ON A SPEECH - AT 7:58 A.M. ET:  In journalism they call it the second-day angle.  A day after the event there are new perspectives, new reactions, and a general filling up of space.

We've now had a day to reflect on the president's Cairo speech.  Like almost every speech Obama gives, it does not wear well.  It gets worse over time.  Contrast that, please, with an A. Lincoln, whose speeches grew with the years.  Ditto an R. Reagan.

It's important, when analyzing a speech, not to overintellectualize, and find things that weren't there.  But I think we can add to our initial observations with the following notes on the Cairo speech:

1.  There was a remarkable silence in the speech about the corruption of the UN.  Obama should have confronted the Muslim nations on their misuse of the "world body" and how it has damaged the UN's credibility.

2.  There was a silence about journalism in the Muslim world, and how it has corrupted the thought of individual citizens.  People don't get their news directly.  They get it through media.  If the media is warped, the population will be warped.  The media in the Muslim world is very warped.

3.  There was silence about the celebration, in some Muslim countries, of the attacks of 9/11, except for one brief, ineffective reference.  The president had an obligation to say that some very bad Muslim attitudes extend far beyond the small group of extremists that he rightly condemned.  We've now made it a false article of faith that our problems in Muslim countries come from the proverbial few bad apples.  No, there are too many bad apples.

4.  Clearly, what has grated critics most about the speech was Mr. Obama's demonstration, once again, that he knows little of history, and distorts what he knows.  He said that the establishment of Israel grew out of Jewish victimhood.  It did not.  The movement to establish Israel began long before the Holocaust, and early Zionist thought actually intrigued some of the founders of the United States.  Similarly, the moral equivalence the president seemed to suggest between the Palestinian and Israeli narratives has raised many eyebrows.  The Israelis agreed to an Arab state, side-by-side, when Israel was created.  On the Palestinian side, there has never been an equivalent acceptance of Israel.  And the flirtation of the Palestinian leadership with Nazism during the Second World War also went unmentioned.

5.  The president has followed the speech by a visit to Germany where he spoke of the "misunderstandings" between the two sides in the Arab-Israeli conflict.  Once again the president reduces conflicts to intellectual propositions.  They are usually more visceral than intellectual, and he will find that the problems of the Mid east are not just misunderstandings.

6.  There were many good things in the speech, and Mr. Obama spoke eloquently.  Now comes the hard part - doing things.  And maybe this administration will learn why past administrations have had such a tough time.  It's time to get out of the seminar and into the real world.

June 5, 2009   Permalink